Will the SHiP experiment at CERN discover any new elementary particles within 10 years of its completion?
Will the SHiP experiment at CERN discover any new elementary particles within 10 years of its completion?
Mini
7
Ṁ2082041
20%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
SHiP (Search for Hidden Particles) is a newly approved experiment at CERN. It's a fixed-target experiment aiming to search for new particles that don't interact well with matter.
This question will resolve YES if there is a consensus in the scientific community that a SHiP discovered a new elementary particle within 10 years of it beginning data collection.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
Will a Beyond the Standard Model Particle be discovered by 2025?
9% chance
Will the LHC discover any more elementary particles?
9% chance
Will the Future Circular Collider discover any new elementary particle?
32% chance
Will a new subatomic particle be experimentally confirmed to exist before 2040?
30% chance
What will be the next elementary particle discovered?
By 2030, will the Mu2e experiment at Fermilab find signals of physics beyond the Standard Model?
27% chance
Which hypothetical elementary particles will be discovered by 2060?
Will we discover a new, (believed to be) non-composite particle by 2050?
45% chance
What will be the next particle discovered outside the Standard Model (2022)?
Will it be possible for AI to have the potential to discover sub-quark structures by end of 2025?
9% chance