How long will alien civilisations broadcast their existence into space?

Plus

Ṁ651

2026

ALL

1 to 100 years

11%

100 to 1,000 years

14%

1,000 to 10,000 years

63%

10,000 to 100,000 years

100,000 to 1,000,000 years

1.1%

1,000,000 to 10,000,000 years

0.7%

10,000,000 to 1,000,000,000 years

Other

This market will be used to calculate L for the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation project. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation).

This market is intended to not resolve and functions as a stock ticker tracking the current scientific consensus. It will close intermittently to allow for easy tracking of project and reopen once recordings are taken. If a solid scientific consensus is held over a significant period of time (multiple decades) then it may resolve to that consensus.

#Science

#Aliens

#Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

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Results of this market will be used here at first closure:

https://manifold.markets/Noit/how-many-aliens-does-manifold-think?r=Tm9pdA

How Many Aliens Does Manifold Think Might We Talk To? Manifold Solves the Drake Equation

This market resolves based on the output of the Manifold Solves the Drake Equation prediction markets for each variable in the Drake Equation, linked below, as priced at time of this market closure. You can read more about the Drake Equation [here](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Drake_equation). For questions with a percentage output, the YES percentage will be used for the calculation. For questions with a category output, the midpoint of the highest-YES-valued category will be used (e.g. if the category lists 1-10, then the output used will be 5). [markets]

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What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

How do I win cash prizes?

Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.

All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.

Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00
→ $1.00, minus a 5% fee.

Learn more.

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