Will the technology to make a Dyson sphere exist by 2040?
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A Dyson sphere is a hypothetical megastructure that encompasses a star and captures a large percentage of its solar power output.

This question will resolve yes if by December 31, 2040, there is credible and verifiable evidence that the technology to make a Dyson sphere exists and is feasible.

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Does a Dyson swarm count?

You would just need self replicating robots that could strip mine Mercury for materials, create a satellite swarm at scale, and be able to usefully transmit power across the solar system. If you could capture 1% of the Sun’s energy I would call that a Dyson swarm. A Dyson sphere is much harder and not stable.