Im basically looking to get out of my position because of Manifold's onerous loan system. Limit order set for 99% on NO.

@MarcusAbramovitch It seems like the last time you bought YES here was in November. Don't you get your money loaned back to you after 25 days? How does cashing out now increase your balance?

@BoltonBailey Manifold has been doing some weird stuff for the amount you can get back in loans based on some leverage ratio. And also, it's a decaying 4%/day, not a constant 4%/day. You never get all the mana back. It's more like 90% back in 2 months or something

@MarcusAbramovitch Ah ok, good point

@JonathanRay 2% for 7 years? I will take your bet.

These questions only measure what the most optimistic trader thinks the discount rate is

Others knowing the discount rate is higher have better opportunities than betting NO on questions that'll resolve YES in year(s). Because Manifold's discount rate is much higher than these questions imply, we instead borrow tens of thousands at exorbitantly higher interest rates from whales like @jack and profit more than enough to cover that. Those loan interest rates are closer to actual discount rates, and are usually >60% APY from my experience

The interest rate should be at least 5%, the current risk-free rate in the real world economy. Instead, it is below 1% here. Insanity! Sell your YES shares and buy something that will generate a higher yield, such as betting against Bitcoin rising.

@BowTrix That doesn't work for several reasons:

• Manifold loans greatly decrease the discount rate on Manifold.

• Mana and $ cannot be freely exchanged. There is no way to do the equivalent of buying T-bills with mana.

I don't get it how are the first M$20 for free?

@YohanProYT That part of the description hasn't been updated since Manifold changed how loans worked a few months ago, it's no longer accurate.

@IsaacKing Oh okay so there were some kind of "freebets" in the past?

@YohanProYT Yeah, it was the same idea as today's loans, but they were limited to M$20, and you got them all immediately rather than 2% per day.

@IsaacKing ok