This market is about the deal mentioned here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce91x2jm5pjo
If the deal does succesfully go through, the market resolves YES.
If it fails or has to be altered for any reason(SEC, cold feet, act of god etc), the market resolves NO.
Update 2025-12-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has confirmed that this market is specifically about the deal for Netflix to acquire Warner Bros Discovery's film & streaming businesses (as described in the linked BBC article), not the entirety of Warner Bros Discovery.
The deal does not include WBD's global networks division or other parts of the company
If the deal must be substantively changed (e.g., reduced to a much smaller subset to avoid regulatory issues), the market resolves NO
Superficial tweaks to the proposed deal will be evaluated by the creator on a case-by-case basis
1,000
1.00@Dynd This market has clear resolution criteria:
This market is about the deal mentioned here:
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/ce91x2jm5pjo
If the deal does succesfully go through, the market resolves YES.
If it fails or has to be altered for any reason(SEC, cold feet, act of god etc), the market resolves NO.
The "deal mentioned here" refers to Netflix's proposal to buy the (quoting the linked article) "film & streaming businesses of Warner Bros Discovery". Notably, that is not the entirety of WBD (e.g., WBD was already planning to spin off its "global networks division" into a separate company, and Netflix's proposal doesn't include that, unlike Paramount's offer).
If the announced deal has to be substantively changed (e.g., to just buy some much smaller subset of WBD to avoid regulatory issues), this would resolve NO. If the proposed deal goes through, it resolves YES. If the proposed deal is tweaked in some superficial way, it'll be up to the creator to untangle edge cases like that. But this market resolves based on the fate of the proposed deal, and that proposed deal does not involve buying the entirety of current WBD.
My understanding is that it will be hard to block bc there are a lot of streaming services and a lot of entertainment options + this administration