Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030 | Manifold

Will the Russian Federation break up into multiple independent states before 2030

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44

Ṁ3027

2030

18%

chance

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1W

1M

ALL

For clarity, if a part of Russia secedes as an independent state this would resolve positively.

If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.

If Crimea became an independent country, that would.

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If Crimea went back to Ukraine that would not be enough.
If Crimea became an independent country, that would.

This doesn't make sense.

Current events on this front:

https://manifold.markets/Schwabilismus/will-ukraine-take-grayvoron-this-we?r=U2Nod2FiaWxpc211cw

Will Ukraine take Grayvoron this week?

60% chance. Context, as this is just unfolding: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1660586319679029250?cxt=HHwWhIC89bSdy4suAAAA Russian separatists seem to cooperate with Ukraine and took the border checkpoint at Kozinka. They seem to be carrying out operations on russian soil in order to…

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