When will SpaceX first reuse Superheavy (Starship 1st stage)?
Plus
40
Ṁ10k2026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
28%
Before 2025-05-01
50%
Before 2025-06-01
72%
Before 2025-07-01
81%
Before 2025-10-01
89%
Before 2026-01-01
93%
Before 2026-04-01
95%
Before 2026-07-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2024-10-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2025-01-01
Resolved
NOBefore 2025-04-01
The market will resolve as soon as SpaceX manages to launch a Starship rocket, successfully land its first stage, aka Superheavy, and launch it for the second time. The second launch doesn't have to be fully successful, the market will resolve positively as long as the rocket leaves the pad.
I do not bet on my own questions.
Related questions:
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land
/OlegEterevsky/when-will-spacex-successfully-land-o1e8o780ic
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
Sorry for the duplicate but thought people might like different milestones in one place for comparison.
https://manifold.markets/ChristopherRandles/starship-milestone-dates-megamarket
Related questions
Related questions
Will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy Booster in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
74% chance
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2025?
45% chance
When will SpaceX first reuse Starship 2nd stage?
Will SpaceX attempt to deploy Starlink satellites in the first fully-orbital Starship–SuperHeavy flight?
77% chance
By when will first Starship be reused?
Non-SpaceX reusable first stage by 2025?
80% chance
By when will SpaceX re-fly a Super Heavy booster, as part of a space-bound flight
Will SpaceX launch a reused Super Heavy rocket booster successfully by the end of 2026?
98% chance
Will SpaceX re-fly a Starship upper stage in 2025? (Everyday Astronaut 2025 Predictions)
9% chance
By when will SpaceX re-fly a space-flown Starship?