For this market to resolve positive the following should happen:
Some resource has to be collected in space or on a celestial body other than Earth.
Something useful has to be produced out of this resource.
The product has to be used for the purposes other than studying the gathered sample.
Examples of types of stuff that would qualify:
Propellant (oxygen, hydrogen, methane etc.)
Oxygen, water for life support (provided some astronauts will consume them)
Construction material (e.g. Lunecrete)
Crops grown in the soil of another celestial body (like in Martian)
Stuff that doesn't count:
Anything made exclusively from the materials launched from Earth
Research samples collected only for analysis.
Small product samples count, as long as they are actually used.
The product doesn't need to return to Earth to be used, and it doesn't have to be used by a human. A robotic mission producing propellant for itself counts.
I will not bet on this market.
Clarification from 2024-02-12: Just energy or momentum are not enough, so solar panels and solar sails don't count.
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@Adam Don't forget Solar Sails!
My guess is the creator is unlikely to resolve based on something that was used before the question was created.
@Adam Below in the comments I've written that just energy and momentum are not enough. I'll add it into the description.
So close but they don't state explicitly that they ate it. One researcher says it's edible but I think it's just referring to the general plant.
@Morgan Seems that the most likely way for any of these years to resolve YES would be if an Artemis 3 astronaut drinks moon water.
@jks Haha, you're probably right. But even if Artemis 3 happens in 2030 or before, there's no way anyone is drinking moon water on the first human moon landing in >50years.
I'm a bit skeptical there will be a human moon landing before 2030. Artemis 3 is NET 2026 and already might not include a landing. I bet it gets delays ~2 years.
@Morgan Yikes, I hadn't heard they might forgo landing. Surprisingly, there's a market for Artemis 3 being a crewed landing or not, but there isn't a market for which year Artemis 3 will launch.
@Morgan "After 2030" is NO for "in 2030 or earlier", so 47% right now. I'll add more options for specific years if the market gets popular. Right now it's a bit noisy, so I doubt it makes sense.
@OlegEterevsky How about some sort of magnetic sail systems (not sure if there have been actual cases yet) which use ions from extraterrestrial plasma as a sort of propellant?
@Thomas42 Nah, just energy/momentum transfer is not enough. There have been solar panels for decades and I think there was a functional demonstration of solar sail already.
What about MOXIE? It generated 122 grams of oxygen.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mars_Oxygen_ISRU_Experiment
@jks Yep, exactly. It's very close to what I have in mind, except that the resource has to be used for its intended purpose.
@Snarflak Nope, it could be used in space as well. I'll add a clarification on what I mean by "use".