Will we find a superconductor working at temperature above -100 °C at room pressure?
Plus
22
Ṁ28972034
1D
1W
1M
ALL
9%
Before 2026
14%
Before 2028
16%
Before 2030
25%
Before 2032
29%
Before 2034
As of 2024 the highest temperature at which we have observed superconductivity at room pressure is around -140 °C. The group of materials exhibiting superconductivity at these temperatures was discovered in the late 80s and early 90s.
Other superconductors are known at much higher temperatures, but all of them require very high pressure to exhibit superconductivity.
In the foreseeable future, will we find any new superconductors working at temperatures above -100 °C? The market will resolve to YES, as soon as such discovery is published, reproduced by independent lab and mentioned on https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/High-temperature_superconductivity as confirmed.
Until then answers will be resolved as NO as soon as the respective period is over without the discovery.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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