Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030? | Manifold

Will we have a superconductor at room-temperature and pressure by end of 2030?

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2031

12%

chance

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Resolves YES if, by the end of 2030, there is a material that scientists/engineers widely agree is a superconductor at room temperature and pressure.

#superconductivity

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Arbitrage:

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Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?

24% chance. To qualify, the material must act as a superconductor above 0C.

predicts YES

@benshindel note that one ends a year earlier

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