Resolves as YES if a superconductor at Room Temperature (RT) and Ambient Pressure (AP) has been discovered, synthesized and measured to be a superconductor before January 1st 2033.
Questions with the same criteria:
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-e940f30870be
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ebfceb8eefc5
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-f41118c07313
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-3ccf49dbe194
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-7d562d338323
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-59822776e416
/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before
/RemNi/will-we-get-superconductors-before-9c92871092bc
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc (this question)
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ba1e9ced21b7
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ece7abf70bde
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-9cd12d2b6612
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-263502d92c27
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-c57aceafb9dc
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-ee6f81c4458a
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-b54305af5198
Other questions for 2033:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2033
/RemNi/will-we-get-asi-before-2033
/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-again-onto-the-2a1f4da84a39
/RemNi/will-we-discover-alien-life-before-2f90be5ca48d
/RemNi/will-we-get-fusion-reactors-before-02fec46476dd
/RemNi/will-we-get-a-cure-for-cancer-befor-7973daa750f9
/RemNi/will-1m-humanoid-robots-be-manufact-04a4cc646b5b
/RemNi/full-vr-brain-computer-interface-be-d17e1e9eef9b
Other reference points for room temperature superconductors:
/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-we-get-room
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-aaddefa708d8
/RemNi/will-we-get-room-temperature-superc-039aff3aa191
Room Temperature is defined as between 0 and 30 centigrade. Ambient Pressure is defined as between 0.5 and 2 atmospheres.
Image credits: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Meissner_effect.ogv
1,000
1.00I've made a 2100 version of this market to try and decouple the question about rates of technical progress from the question of this is actually technically possible:
https://manifold.markets/CameronHolmes/will-we-get-a-room-temperature-ambi?r=Q2FtZXJvbkhvbG1lcw
Ambient Pressure is defined as 0.5 bar
@RemNi I assume you meant "at least 0.5 bar", but for what it's worth, it's high pressures at which superconductivity is easier, not low. So if, like with defining "room temperature" as "at least 0 C" you're looking to give a little leeway to be generous, you should give it on the other side and say "ambient pressure means at most two atmospheres" or something like that.
Otherwise someone will invent a room-temperature superconductor at 200 GPa and it would satisfy this criterion. Some are close already:
Superconductivity at 250 K in lanthanum hydride under high pressures
Here we report superconductivity with a critical temperature of around 250 kelvin within the Fm3m structure of LaH10 at a pressure of about 170 gigapascals. This is, to our knowledge, the highest critical temperature that has been confirmed so far in a superconducting material.