Will Boris Nadezhdin be free and in Russia at the end of 2024?
Plus
29
Ṁ3078Dec 31
91%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Boris Nadezhdin is a Russian opposition politician who aspires to run for president in March's presidential election.
The question resolves YES if he is neither incarcerated (prison, pretrial detention or any other form) nor outside of Russia on 31 December 2024, NO in all other cases.
UPD: If Nadezhdin dies in 2024, I will resolve N/A.
If he is incarcerated/outside Russia on 31 December, but it's not clear whether it is only temporary (e.g. one-day detention for drunken behavior, vacation), I will wait until the situation becomes clear.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Sort by:
@CreativeCulture resolves N/A if he's dead; see https://manifold.markets/PS/will-boris-nadezhdin-be-free-and-in#Cm0RALc1aEQsX2zeT628
Related questions
Related questions
Will a criminal case be initiated against Boris Nadezhdin before the end of 2024?
5% chance
Will Boris Nadezhdin be declared a foreign agent before the end of 2024?
8% chance
Will I think Nadezhdin contributed to political instability in Russia in 2024?
14% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be the President of Russia at the end of 2024?
99% chance
Will Boris Nadezhdin be the head of Russia before EOY 2030?
6% chance
Will Vladimir Putin step foot in Ukraine by the end of 2024?
2% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2029?
46% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be the leader of Russia at the end of 2024?
99% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be alive at the end of 2024?
97% chance
Will Vladimir Putin be President of Russia at the end of 2024?
98% chance