Donald Trump has claimed in May 2023:
"If [the war] is not solved, I will have it solved in 24 hours with Zelensky and with Putin”.
He later explained:
I will interpret Trump's claim generously, I think. In particular, the market resolves "yes" if all of the following apply:
The Russia-Ukraine war is still in an active phase when Trump is elected.
It is confirmed by Trump, Putin and Zelensky (or their representatives) that Trump has talked to both of them, jointly or separately, by the end of the day after his election.
"Trump is elected" may be any of three times: when the election is unambiguously called for Trump, when Trump is officially elected by the Electoral College, or when Trump is inaugurated. However, if Trump e.g. talks to Putin immediately after the election is called but to Zelensky on the day of his inauguration, this doesn't count.
UPD: Trump talking to Zelensky but not Putin after the election was called does not yet trigger a "no" resolution. It is still possible that he will call both of them between the time he is officially elected by the Electoral College and the end of the subsequent day, or call both between the inauguration and the end of the subsequent day.
The market resolves "N/A" if Trump is not elected in 2024, or if the war largely ends, for whatever reasons, before Trump is elected. It resolves "no" in all other cases.
See also:
1,000
1.00@PS I do not think Trump called putin, so this resolves NO https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-manly-donald-trump-us-election/
From the market description:
"Trump is elected" may be any of three times: when the election is unambiguously called for Trump, when Trump is officially elected by the Electoral College, or when Trump is inaugurated. However, if Trump e.g. talks to Putin immediately after the election is called but to Zelensky on the day of his inauguration, this doesn't count.
So there are two more way this could still resolve yes.
@PS Ah got it. I was looking at this:
However, if Trump e.g. talks to Putin immediately after the election is called but to Zelensky on the day of his inauguration, this doesn't count.
Trump did call zelensky within 24 hours of his election, but not putin
https://www.axios.com/2024/11/08/musk-trump-zelensky-ukraine-call
I took that to mean it resolved NO. IIUC, are you saying that it can resolve YES if Trump calls both of them e.g. within 24h of inauguration, but it still resolves NO if he now only calls putin within 24h of his inauguration?
@Ziddletwix Yes, exactly - sorry if the wording is unclear. Do you think I should edit it for clarity?
@PS Sure you could just add something about how he has to talk to both within the same of the 24 hour periods to count. Although if people see this thread they will probably get it anyways
@Ziddletwix Thanks, I added an update to the description which hopefully makes things clear.
I think you can get your mana back if you sell now - if you lose any because my description was unclear, let me know and I'll reimburse you.
@PS Also, all of this might be irrelevant, since new reports seem to suggest Trump did talk to both Zelensky and Putin.