This will resolve to YES if a "flying car" (VTOL) is commercially available in the US for under $50,000 (adjusted for inflation, 2024) by 2040.

This vehicle cannot be categorized as a car, an airplane, a helicopter, or a jetpack (or any other form of vehicle).

Whether you need extra licensing for this vehicle or not won't affect the outcome of this market.

Ground effect flying or hovering does not count.

You may or may not need a license plate.

The vehicle must carry at least one average adult person.

A hovering car (using ground effect or some other form of close-ground hovering technology) does not count as a flying car.

Using a canopy or some sort of parachute device that allows the vehicle to glide does not count as flying.