This market will resolve Yes if the story is confirmed that 100 or more total bodies were discovered buried in the area, and the bodies are generally in line with the descriptions in this article from UN News: https://news.un.org/en/story/2024/04/1148876?utm
Very specific details such as a catheter still being inserted in a corpse do not need to be verified, but if for example there are "only" 50 bodies and all of them are adult men with clothes on buried by Palestinians in January before the IDF arrived, this would resolve No. If there is a layer of fresher bodies buried by the IDF with signs of constraint such as zip ties, then this will resolve Yes. Verification will come from forthcoming independent investigation requested by the UN as mentioned here: https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/24/middleeast/un-calls-for-investigation-gaza-mass-graves-mime-intl/index.html
This may take some time, so closure and resolution can be delayed. Feel free to discuss standards and share information in the comments. The standards of this market do not represent my personal ethics, but rather what I believe would be persuasive to a neutral or skeptical party.
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1.00@AlexanderSharpe If the bodies buried by Palestinians in January constitute all of those in the mass graves, then this market will resolve No. I'll change the title back to "buried" since I wasn't sure which would make the spirit clearer re: the possibility of multiple burial stages by both parties. If the IDF added to the graves (ie. with those bodies found to have their hands tied) then it will resolve Yes. In either case, only an independent investigation will be sufficient to resolve.
The latest number of 520 bodies spread over 7 sites would reinforce the "Israel added bodies after/while bulldozing the older sites" narrative, but still requires independent verification.
https://thehill.com/policy/international/4652018-reports-mount-of-mass-graves-at-gaza-hospitals-some-without-heads/
@strutheo Yeah my credence is around 20% right now. It’s not as if the IDF doesn’t lie or have out of control soldiers sometimes, but there was clearly a game of telephone on the ground, and it reminds me of the initial Al-Ahli response lacking pictures. On the other hand, there’s a great deal of taboo around closely examining already defiled/bulldozed graves. But on the other other hand, if the plan is to rebury everyone with proper funeral rites eventually, then there should be an opportunity to confirm or deny things like tied hands, live burial, etc.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/04/25/world/middleeast/gaza-mass-grave-nasser-hospital.html
Videos shared on social media and verified by The New York Times show that two sites with multiple mass graves were dug at Nasser and bodies were buried starting in January.
Satellite imagery shows that the large mass grave first dug by Gazans underneath the palm trees in the southern part of the complex was disturbed by Israeli forces, including with a bulldozer, lending credence to the Israeli claim that they exhumed and reburied bodies.
There is no clear sign that Israeli troops dug new graves or added bodies to existing ones.
https://twitter.com/GeoConfirmed/status/1782360892249612466/photo/1
Conclusion: This is disinformation by Al Jazeera and others: This is a known graveyard/mass grave and at least partially dug by Palestinians.
This does not exclude that graves could have been added when the hospital was occupied by Israeli forces.
@AlexanderSharpe If the bodies buried by Palestinians in January constitute all of those in the mass graves, then this market will resolve No. I'll change the title back to "buried" since I wasn't sure which would make the spirit clearer re: the possibility of multiple burial stages by both parties. If the IDF added to the graves (ie. with those bodies found to have their hands tied) then it will resolve Yes. In either case, only an independent investigation will be sufficient to resolve.
I do not trust you to determine what is “confirmed”. You would resolve yes if Al Jazeera just mindlessly repeated this story.
@nathanwei ...What? That is not the resolution criteria. AJ has already repeated this story, as has CNN, the BBC, and many others. This market is about whether an independent investigation verifies it at a future date. Also, my other markets tend to not use Al Jazeera precisely because of this knee-jerk reaction from those with mainstream views on the conflict.
Unfortunately, it looks like there's no accounting for people who don't read the description.
@Panfilo Sure what if the independent investigation is by Al Jazeera or by the people who said Israel bombed the Baptist hospital?
@nathanwei I do not expect the UN to task Al Jazeera with the solitary task of investigating this. Is there any precident for that sort of action? Al-Ahli was ultimately investigated by Human Rights Watch. I am frankly not feeling that this is a respectful or fair line of criticism, and I resent people like @AVS and @RanaG liking this as if my record on the issue is bad. My first big market on Manifold was this: