Some say that OpenAI will not release any new models until after the Election is over due to fears of AI content being used in an adversarial way. If OpenAI releases a new major or minor release of the GPT model (assuming major.minor making scheme, then GPT 4.X, GPT 5, etc...) prior or on election day, this will be resolved as true.
Update: Per the answers to people's comments below, I'm adding clarification. A 'new' gpt model requires for an update in the Major.Minor naming scheme. Previously models went GPT 2, GPT 3, GPT 3.5, GPT 4, following a major.minor scheme, as the underlying model got better. Following this logic GPT4 turbo and gpt4o aren't new models. GPT 4 Turbo just goes faster and 4o is multi-modal. Same brains, just more ways to interface.
This prediction will resolve at the night of the American election, or if openAI releases a new model (per the major.minor naming scheme) before then.
Feel free to ask more questions/comment if need.
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1.00@PaulJones2733 I don't think that's true. Their blog post says:
We also plan to continue developing and releasing models in our GPT series, in addition to the new OpenAI o1 series.
Given that, I don't think o1 should count for positive resolution.
Jimmy suggests GPT-4.x in October: https://x.com/apples_jimmy/status/1833595024543781088
A similar question has just resolved
https://manifold.markets/Soli/what-will-be-true-of-openais-next-m#zpgwnlb4vn
I've mulled over their arguments and decided to not resolve yet. If someone wishes to resolve 4o as the next generation model, more arguments are needed to the affirmative. Otherwise, the question will remain unresolved.
This is a good question
I don't consider 4o a new model, as it doesn't follow the usual Major.Minor naming scheme previously used (ie. GPT 3, GPT 3.5), but rather suggests an iteration on 4 (GPT 4, GPT 4 Turbo and now GPT 4o). Since this model is not named 4.1o, 4.2o or 5o, I do not consider this a new model, rather more inputs/outputs into an existing model (GPT 4 Turbo). Same brains, just with more ways to communicate to us.
Once we see a minor (or major) number update in the name (ie. 4.1 or 4.2), this question (and prediction) will be resolved.
I do admit OpenAI isn't making this easy to judge, I didn't expect OpenAI to ride the hype train so hard, but in AI I'm learning to expect the unexpected
If I can, I'll add more clarification to the question. Hope this helps.
