Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?
Will Trump actually establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in his first year?
➕
Plus
146
Ṁ71k
2026
89%
chance

Context:

Resolution Criteria:

  • Resolves YES if:

    1. Donald Trump is elected president in November 2024, AND

    2. Within 1 year of his inauguration, his administration: signs an executive order, or passes legislation, or otherwise officially establishes a US strategic reserve of Bitcoin or other crypto

    3. Actual crypto must be acquired and held for reserve purposes.

  • Resolves NO if:

    1. Trump is elected, but the above conditions are not met within 1 year of inauguration.

  • Resolves N/A if:

    1. Donald Trump is not elected president in November 2024.

Notes:

  • The total amount of cryptocurrency in the reserve does not affect the resolution.

  • Merely starting the legal process is not sufficient for a YES resolution; the reserve must be actually established and holding Bitcoin or other crypto.

  • If the reserve holds Ethereum or other currencies, instead of Bitcoin, this would still resolve as YES. CBDC does not count for YES resolution.

  • Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Important Updates:

    • The source of cryptocurrency is irrelevant. Coins that are moved into the reserve, whether seized or newly acquired, will count.

    • A valid YES resolution requires that the reserve is established with coins being held inside, regardless of how those coins originally came into government hands.

  • Update 2025-03-07 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Access to Assets Clarification:

    • The reserve will count seized cryptocurrency only if the government actually has control (i.e. access to the private keys) and is able to move these assets to the strategic reserve.

    • Simply seizing hardware without the cryptographic keys does not qualify for a YES resolution.

#️ Politics
#🇺🇸 US Politics
#Trump
#Republican Party
#🇺🇸 2024 US Presidential Election
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26d

“After creating”

bought Ṁ75 NO1mo

putting all my money on no. because surely even trump knows if he takes the gold out of fort knox, and uses it to purchase bitcoin when its elon that told him to; when he doesnt even know what bitcoin is, is an ipshit idea. im also betting elon and trump have a falling out before then. and im betting that trump is the type of guy to cancel the bitcoin idea because it was elon's idea in the first place. even if it would actually work in his own favor.

bought Ṁ10 YES at 88% 1mo
29d

@SoullessScythe Don't they already have Bitcoin? Why would they need to spend gold?

1mo

Pls buy NO and fill my orders guys? Polymarket is coping: https://polymarket.com/event/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025

1mo

@copiumarc what do you mean coping? coping about what?

1mo

Hold on, does this resolve positive if they merely hold on to cryptocurrency they already have?

1mo

@DavidFWatson Based on wording, not 100% sure, but imo, if the currently held 200,000 (or about) bitcoin get moved into the new reserve, I would say should resolve YES. Obviously if new bitcoin are bought and put into it also YES. (full clarity, I hold pretty 650mana in NO at 65%)

bought Ṁ500 YES from 85% to 89% 1mo
bought Ṁ500 YES1mo

@No_uh @PeterBuyukliev Thoughts?

1mo

@No_uh they don't even have to buy new bitcoin with money, newly seized bitcoin presumably get added to the reserve

1mo

@Odoacre oh yeah i forgot about that part of the whole thing lol. that's true. i would also personally say this works if the US govt set up a mining operation lmao

1mo

@Odoacre I sorta think “acquire” has an implication of a purchase. If the cops take your pile of cash, have they really “acquired” it? They’ve seized it!

1mo

Seized means they are holding it, aquired means it's theirs

filled a Ṁ1,000 YES at 99.0% order1mo

@No_uh I agree with Noah. If they establish a reserve and move some coins inside, I don't care about the source - whether it's seized or newly acquired.

1mo

@traders I remind you that for this market to resolve, actual crypto must be acquired and held.

1mo

@PeterBuyukliev Would this resolve YES if the government declares existing cryptocurrency holdings — for instance, seized assets — to be part of a reserve, but does not purchase any new cryptocurrency?

sold Ṁ1,674 YES1mo

@Twig selling because unclear

1mo

@Twig @barbarous as long as they actually have access to those assets (i.e. they have not just seized the hard drives without the private keys), and move them to the strategic reserve, that counts for me.

Honestly I did not anticipate this being a point of contention, but if I were asked earlier, I would have clarified the same way.

1mo

https://polymarket.com/event/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025/us-national-bitcoin-reserve-in-2025 trading much much lower, and criteria seem a little bit looser

US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
Polymarket | This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point between January 1, 2025, ET and ...

Market concerning how much is in the reserve (includes possible $0) across all currencies https://manifold.markets/IsaacLiu/what-will-be-the-total-value-of-the

bought Ṁ190 YES1mo

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/02/trump-announces-strategic-crypto-reserve-including-bitcoin-solana-xrp-and-more.html

8mo

Depends. What’s in it for him? He could front run the reserve or at least SELL the reserve info to “campaign donors”, for a return cut.

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