Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030? | Manifold

Will any Millenium Prize Problem (other than the Poincaré conjecture) be solved by 2030?

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2029

44%

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Resolves "yes" if any of the six remaining Millenium Prize Problems are solved before Jan. 1, 2030, and the solution is accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute.

#Millennium Prize Problems

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Arbitrage

https://www.ft.com/content/72d2c2b1-493b-4520-ae10-41c1a7f3b7e4

@MalachiteEagle Going from "they will solve some important conjectures" to "they will solve a millenium prize problem" is peak availability heuristic

Interesting that the probability of this has gone up lately. Maybe people think the room-temperature superconductor will help solve the Millennium problems.

Why'd everyone bet this so far down without also betting on the identical market in the comments? There's an easy dutch book now.

predicts NO

Dutch book opportunity:

This is the AI's interpretation of what a Millennium Prize looks like:

Millenium Prize

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