Will Tesla motors make significant investments in R&D for a new battery type for their vehicles before the first consumer EV with a solid state battery is delivered in the US?

Many researchers and auto companies have claimed success and reported advancements in solid state batteries, hailing them as the future for EVs. Tesla motors, famously, has consistently doubled and tripled down on their lithium-ion battery research and infrastructure. Will Tesla stick with this path until the first EV with a solid state battery is delivered in the US?

Tesla Lithium-Ion over Solid State: https://medium.com/nerd-for-tech/tesla-why-lithium-ion-over-solid-state-batteries-4f295bb3557d

Toyota Solid State EV: https://electrek.co/2024/01/11/toyota-solid-state-ev-battery-plans-750-mi-range/

Resolves YES if:

• Tesla motors directs significant investments ("significant" as determined by the sentiment of experts, traders in this market, and Tesla shareholders) to developing a new battery chemistry for use in it's EVs.

• The battery chemistry must be novel, not simply investing in switching their cars to an already developed, tried, and market-evaluated chemistry (for example molten sodium or sodium ion).

• The investment and research commitment must be officially announced or confirmed. A Tweet from someone at Tesla will not suffice.

Resolves NO if:

• A commercially available consumer EV with an all solid state battery is delivered in the US to a private individual, before the above criteria are met.

Resolves to a percentage if:

• A consumer EV with a partially solid state battery that meets all other NO requirements is delivered in the US and then before an all solid state battery EV is delivered, Tesla fulfills the YES requirements. In this case it will resolve to the percentage of capacity that the solid state portion of the partially solid state EV represents, rounded to the nearest percent.

• Example: Toyota delivers an EV in which 10kWh of the total 60kWh battery is from a solid state battery before Tesla invests in a new battery chemistry. In response, Tesla invests in developing its own solid state batteries. Then this market will resolve to 10/60 × 100% rounded to nearest percent = 17%.

Close date will be extended until resolution criteria are met.

As always if there are any questions or disagreements about these resolution criteria, please leave a comment.

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