Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?
Will a new Magic card reference The Stack XOR Summoning Sickness before 2028?
➕
Plus
6
Ṁ850
2028
24%
chance

There must be evidence of EXACTLY ONE of either The Stack (as a zone) or Summoning Sickness referenced by name in oracle rules text on a non-reprint, non-joke Magic: The Gathering card between market creation (Feb 11, 2025) and the scheduled market close (11:59 PM Dec 31, 2027) to resolve YES. Otherwise, NO.

This market uses XOR logic. If both The Stack and Summoning Sickness are referenced by name in this way, this resolves NO. If more than one card meets the criteria for one of these options, it's the same as the option being satisfied once. If one card references both, it counts for both.

Reminder text is not rules text, and it does not count. It must be oracle rules text on a traditional Magic card that can be put in the deck of cards that becomes the library at the start of a game.

A joke card is a silver bordered card, acorned card, playtest card, or anything of comparable spirit. These don't count.

A card counts when a Scryfall or Gatherer page with with non-translated, legitimate English rules text exists for it.

I won't trade in this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:
1mo

Does "Oracle rules text" include reminder text?

1mo

@JackBrounstein For the sake of this market, no. This is reflected in the description:

Reminder text is not rules text, and it does not count. It must be oracle rules text on a traditional Magic card that can be put in the deck of cards that becomes the library at the start of a game.

1mo

It has happened at least once before for The Stack.

https://scryfall.com/card/csp/89/lightning-storm

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.