When will the first anti-AGI terror attack occur?
Mini
8
Ṁ2032040
1D
1W
1M
ALL
27%
20%
Never, AGI kills all humans first
1.5%
2023
5%
2024
37%
2025
8%
2026
2%
2027
Will be resolved if an attack resulting in the death of at least one human by another human is reported from at least five sources and that death is claimed by either the killer or a group who claims the attack for the purpose of raising awareness of AI safety or for preventing the development of an artificial general intelligence.
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No option for "after 2027 but humanity isn't wiped out". AGI powerful enough to be existential threat being achieved in a couple years is not that likely to be assumed.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.1.00Related questions
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