Resolves as YES if the dancing plague returns before January 1st, 2028.

Questions with the same criteria:

Will the Dancing Plague return before 2028?19%‌ (this question)

Will the Dancing Plague return before 2029?21%‌

Will the Dancing Plague return before 2030?16%‌

Will the Dancing Plague return before 2031?16%‌

Other events for 2028:

Will we get AGI before 2028?34%‌

Will we get ASI before 2028?8%‌

Will we get room temperature superconductors before 2028?9%‌

Will a human walk on the Moon again before 2028?14%‌

Will we discover alien life before 2028?8%‌

Will we get fusion reactors before 2028?16%‌

Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2028?83%‌

The 'dancing plague,' also known as choreomania, refers to a series of events in Europe between the 14th and 17th centuries where groups of people danced uncontrollably for days or weeks, often until they collapsed from exhaustion or, in some cases, died. For the purposes of this market, a 'return of the dancing plague' would be defined as at least three well documented events where a group of 50 or more individuals are reported to have uncontrollably danced in the same location during a period of 12 hours or more, without being part of a pre-arranged performance or protest. Verification of such an event must come from credible sources, such as major news organizations, academic studies, or government health agencies. Explicit references to a return of the dancing plague in relation to these events must have been made by reputable new organizations in order for this market to resolve as YES.

Dancing plague: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dancing_mania