Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Uranus, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2045. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Uranus must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.
Questions with the same criteria:
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2025?NO
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2030?2%
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2035?4%
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2040?6%
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2045?10% (this question)
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2050?14%
Solar system explorations questions:
Will there be a crewed mission to Mercury before 2045?17%
Will there be a crewed mission to Venus before 2045?23%
Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2045?71%
Will there be a crewed mission to Jupiter before 2045?12%
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2045?13%
Will there be a crewed mission to Uranus before 2045?10% (this question)
Will there be a crewed mission to Neptune before 2045?10%
Will there be a crewed mission to Pluto before 2045?8%
Other questions:
Will we get AGI before 2045?84%
To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 1 million kilometers threshold from Uranus. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).
The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 1 million kilometers threshold from Uranus. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from Uranus.
Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.
Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Uranus2.jpg
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1.00I am behind of manifold news, but didn't the appeal of these markets used to be, you will get your money back through loans if you bet 20 years into the future, after the website probably died anyway... And that recently changed?
Will these markets lose their popularity?
If you bet an obvious no at 50% down to 20% and then a lot of people bet it down to 1% over the years, you get your money back through loans... Plus profit... Was that it? Still a thing with a button?
I don't get this part of manifold
@RemNiFHfMN I'm just confused about how it worked at all, let alone since rule changes, I'll just keep watching comments and I'll pick it up eventually, but if you have the power, by all means summon one of these "moderators" to our realm
@VAPOR The way things are currently set up you would quickly get however much you bet returned back as loans, but you would have to wait for it to resolve to get your profit. You could indeed sell early to get part of your profit.
I'm hopeful the loan system will be tweaked at some point to allow long term profits to be realized in the form of loans
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00