Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2050?
➕
Plus
42
Ṁ4321
2050
72%
chance

Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2050. For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Mars must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.

Questions from the same criteria:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-5bf1aa9694b5

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-705743676ab6 (this question)

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-0b9113192c85

Human venture on Mars questions:

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-b78c73592440

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-cbd9e461335b

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-f591cd57e406

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-df3792742b47

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-046bbe924d16

/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-285b5811deab

/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-0aa3d5d0ba0f

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-aaa7b812182d

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-46a10618ba56

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-82852f7eae62

/RemNi/will-a-human-venture-onto-the-surfa-db934d5b874e

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-79e7a1611b03

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-ceaed9045812

/RemNi/will-a-human-walk-on-mars-before-20-15fec4a3f4e6

Solar system exploration questions:

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-f4436ca9677d

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-manned-mission-to-v-6290eb11e91a

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-705743676ab6 (this question)

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-j-a9a3f325ef11

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-s-8ed0dd4c92a3

/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-u-7f66d8900906

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-n-c656cf7d30ae

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-p-540f4becfd24

Other questions for 2050:

/RemNiFHfMN/will-a-directed-energy-system-lift

/RemNiFHfMN/will-earth-have-a-space-elevator-be-fb6b365be2a7

/RemNi/will-there-be-a-dyson-sphere-around-655a4defd440

Other points of reference:

/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-a-human-vent-549ed4a31a05

To meet the criteria, the human aboard the spacecraft must remain awake for at least one continuous hour during the period when the spacecraft is within the 1 million kilometers threshold from Mars. Furthermore, during this awake period, the human's heart rate must not drop below 30 beats per minute (prohibiting some, hypothetical, methods of stasis).

The safe return of the human passenger is not a necessary condition for the market to resolve to YES. The human must be alive as the spacecraft reaches the 1 million kilometers threshold from Mars. If the human is in a state of suspended animation or asleep at the time of crossing this threshold, they must be successfully resuscitated or woken up for at least one hour while the spacecraft remains under the specified distance from Mars.

Additionally, the human on board must possess both a functioning brain and heart, with limited alterations. These vital organs may have undergone chemical, mechanical, or electronic modifications, provided that these enhancements do not significantly alter the organ's functioning compared to that of a typical human. Complete modification or replacement of any other organ in the human's body is permissible within the context of this question.

Image credits: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Tharsis_and_Valles_Marineris_-_Mars_Orbiter_Mission_(30055660701).png

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Would a direct-entry landing count for this, or only orbits / flybys?

predicts YES

@EvanDaniel yes. Any form of aerobreaking, soft landing and lithobreaking counts. Provided it fulfills the one hour awake criteria under the distance threshold.

title: orbit before 2050?
description: before January 1st, 2045.

predicts YES

@bessarabov fixed. Thanks!