We all love manifold, but it's got it's problems! A significant number of them are itemized in this list.
Have you ever wondered if you could not just correct a markets price, but actually correct markets? Have you wanted to earn 160,000+ a year, fully remote?
Have you wanted to figure out the aggregate likelihood of those above questions? Then bet here!
Resolution Criteria:
This market will resolve to the bucket containing the number of issues someone completes before their hire, by the next Manifold hire who has closed any issues tracked on Github (see above link).
This market will stay open until they hire someone who has closed 1 or more issues on github is hired.
Please feel free to ask any clarifying questions in the comments. I intend for this market to best answer the question in the title and am open to suggestions on how to bring the resolution criteria closer to that.
Note: I accidentally have "20" twice in the answers to this question. In the case that someone completes exactly 20 open issues, I will resolve this market to "10-20".
1,000
1.00Do PRs without an associated issue but made in response to some bug (in particular, https://github.com/manifoldmarkets/manifold/pull/1983) count?
@AnT as I wrote it, no. My reasoning for that was that Charlie's market said "Bugs", and I wanted this question to qualify. A different question including them though seems good.
Is there a “none of the above option”? I’ve got a number of problems with this market.
It’s improbable that subsequent hires will be paid higher salaries than founding or more senior engineers.
Manifold is not fully remote. There’s offsites, plus the application asks if you live or would be willing to relocate to SF.
It’s inaccurate to describe the hiring decision as directly proportional to GitHub contributions. Other factors include fitting in with the rest of the team, coding experience and skill, etc.
This isn’t really relevant yet because Manifold wants to stay small until their userbase and funding get a whole lot bigger.
"None of the above" means this market doesn't resolve:
In response:
Sure - I am in no way guaranteeing the salary paid by manifold, nor is that required for this to resolve one way or the other.
Same as above - I am neither guaranteeing terms of employment nor do I care. The top, non-"Resolution Criteria" section is just narrative as I figure this would be a boring question otherwise (and occasionally I tell myself I have a sense of humor people will appreciate reading).
Agreed, but again that is irrelevant. This market is conditional on someone who has closed issues getting hired.
I'm happy to keep this open a while?
Overall, I think your confusion comes because I could make it more clear the top section is meant to get people interested/narrative?
@RobertCousineau Sorry for being grumpy at you, that wasn’t constructive of me. Your points are well taken. Exactly, I read the narrative as light hearted & sincere, not sarcastic, so it bothered me that it contains false implications. Ignore my overreacting! :)