It never resolves no, and will probably never resolve yes because people know it will never resolve no. So the only logical thing to do is bet yes and sell as the price goes up.

@Planarian It would be equally logical to bet NO and sell when the price goes down. It will never resolve for either side, so the two are equivalent.

@DavidBolin that's true

My first intuition is the market should permanently oscillate around 50% without ever resolving. Seems like a huge liquidity black hole. Interesting mathematical problem.

@whalelang My intuition is that this will become a stock market too, but not necessarily around 50% all the time

https://manifold.markets/mana/will-the-linked-market-resolve-befo

Interesting meta market, I’m curious how it’ll play out.

@Conflux Yeah, I'm curious how people are thinking about the pricing of this. Since it's guaranteed to resolve YES at some point (modulo v. unlikely misclick errors) I guess we could compare it to the various free money discount rate questions. These seem to give about 1 or 2% per year, so the current price implies the market expects this to take about 5 years to pay out. But then the higher it's bid up the more expensive it is to push down to below 1% so the less likely it is to resolve YES...

When does it resolve no?

@MartinRandall never

I'll extend the close date