I have a 70 year old male relative who is 6'2" and weighs 258 pounds. Despite being relatively active and otherwise healthy, he is extremely overweight. He has just started taking Evolv GLP-1, which is a yeast-derived GLP agonist sold as an over-the-counter supplement.
If he loses 10 pounds or more before October 25th, 2025 while taking this supplement, this market resolves YES. If he fails to lose 10 pounds in this timeframe or discontinues taking the supplement (due to side effects or whatever) beforehand this resolves NO.
Update 2025-08-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If he forgets doses or stops taking Evolv GLP-1 for any reason (cost, concern about losing too fast, etc.), this resolves NO.
If he loses 10 lb or more but his supplement use was too inconsistent to attribute the loss to the supplement, this resolves NO (no PARTIAL/PROB).
1,000
1.00@SG And so just to be clear, if he's lost 10lbs at any point this resolves YES? The market isn't about the state on Oct 26?
@SG wow this is incredible!
9.6 pounds × 3,500 calories/pound = 33,600 calories of deficit, which is like 1500 kcal per day
@mckiev it's a bit less than that because he's not losing pure fat. He's also losing muscle. And muscles are 800 kcal instead of 3.500
If we assume 25% muscle loss. (due to age I'm assuming sedentary lifestyle estimates) It's 0.25*800+0.75*3500 = 2825 kcal per pound lost.
If he forgets to take it or decides it's too expensive, or even stops because he thinks it's making him lose too much too fast, that's all NO? What if he loses the 10 pounds but has taken the supplement too inconsistently to be sure how much credit it deserves? Maybe that one's a resolve-to-PROB scenario?
I'm torn on how to bet here. I'm like 90% that the supplement is bogus. But someone spending real money on something they hope will work could easily induce concomitant behavior changes that yield a pound or so per week of weight loss. Then there's the monkey wrench of the all-you-can-eat cruise!
Or, I guess the biggest monkey wrench of all is what I'm asking above -- how likely it is that he'll give up on taking the supplement.
PS: After saying I thought it was 90% the supplement is bogus, mostly on vibes, I thought to ask GPT-5-Thinking. It also says 90% chance it's bogus.
PPS: Then I thought to try it phrased positively "probability it's legit" and in a temporary chat without access to my chat history. That brought us down to 85% chance of being bogus. But then it breaks that down (probability the company is even real, etc) and includes only a 2% chance that it "meaningfully 'activates GLP-1' with effects remotely comparable to semaglutide/tirzepatide".
PPPS: But then it comes up with 28% that this supplement at least beats a placebo in an RCT, for a bunch of reasons involving yeast peptides that I don't understand.