Will ISRO's LVM3 rocket experience a failure before 2030?
Will ISRO's LVM3 rocket experience a failure before 2030?
Mini
9
Ṁ2282030
34%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
ISRO is the Indian Space Research Organisation, India's equivalent of NASA. LVM3 has flown six times as of market creation, and all flights have been successful.
A failure is a full or partial failure of the rocket, the payload not reaching the target orbit or trajectory after the final engine cutoff is a failure. There are currently eight LVM3 launches scheduled before 2030.
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What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana and can't be cashed out.
and can't be cashed out.Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at 1.00 → $1.00, minus a 5% fee.
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