Will SpaceX's HLS lander successfully land on the moon on the first attempt? | Manifold

Will SpaceX's HLS lander successfully land on the moon on the first attempt?

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Success in this case means that NASA deems the test was a safe landing, and rules that it meets the requirements for the Artemis program.

For the purposes of this market the HLS test vehicle will count as HLS.

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What if SpaceX sends a lander just for internal testing, that's not intended to be the official HLS demo?

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