Resolution Criteria

This market resolves to YES if the UK government officially recognizes Palestine as a sovereign state on or before December 31, 2025. Official recognition includes any formal declaration, diplomatic announcement, or legal action that constitutes official recognition under international norms. The market resolves to NO if the UK has not formally recognized Palestine by the end of 2025.

Background

As of April 2025, the UK has not officially recognized Palestine as a sovereign state. Though Labour MPs push for Foreign Office to recognize Palestinian statehood, joining Macron (France). (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/apr/13/labour-mps-pressure-foreign-office-to-recognise-palestinian-statehood)

In January 2024, then-Foreign Secretary David Cameron suggested that the UK could consider recognizing a Palestinian state to advance a two-state solution. He stated that recognition "could be one of the things that helps to make this process irreversible." (theguardian.com)

However, in May 2024, Chancellor Jeremy Hunt indicated that it was not the right time for the UK to recognize Palestine, emphasizing that the UK would do so when it most helps the peace process. (aa.com.tr)

In July 2024, Foreign Secretary David Lammy reiterated the UK's commitment to recognizing a Palestinian state as a contribution to a renewed peace process leading to a two-state solution. (balfourproject.org)

As of April 2025, the UK has not formally recognized Palestine as a sovereign state.