Will Elon Musk have a child of given ethnicity?
45
Ṁ5518
2040
53%
Latino
33%
Arab
13%
Black
10%
Native American
5%
Maori
Resolved
YES
Jewish

https://x.com/teortaxesTex/status/1912658611756474523

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Child's Ethnicity Standard:

    • Ethnicity will be evaluated based on how the child's ethnicity is perceived by people and society.

    • The interpretation will be broad, acknowledging that ethnicity is a fuzzy concept.

  • Update 2025-04-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Biological Parent Requirement:

    • Only biological children of Elon Musk will be counted in the resolution.

  • Update 2025-04-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Ethnicity Definition Update:

    • Ethnicity is now determined using the Latino standard.

    • This definition excludes Spain and Portugal.

    • This definition includes Brazil.

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Maori

@jim Maori colours are red white and black if any of those are available

bought Ṁ1,000 Jewish YES

Please resolve @SanghyeonSeo

@elf Oh, this looks correct...

Arab

@SanghyeonSeo IMO this one should be green, Latino and Arab should switch colors

@evan Done!

Hispanic should be edited because it's a language group. I think you meant Latino.

@Panfilo I don't want to litigate this, but Wikipedia seems to think Hispanic is an ethnic term.

@SanghyeonSeo It's your market, but it could be ambiguous if he has a kid with someone of Spanish versus native South American descent.

@Panfilo Okay, edited to Latino. This means Spain and Portugal are out and Brazil is in.

bought Ṁ100 Black NO

Black should be at zero.

Also, are you only counting Elon as a biological father, or would adoption also count?

What percentage is required to count for this? E.g., if Elon has a child with someone who is half-Black, is that enough?

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Ethnicity is a fuzzy concept, but the standard would be the child's ethnicity, as generally considered by people and society. I think I will tend to interpret it broadly for this market.

@SanghyeonSeo perhaps mother ethnicity is a better standard? Many of the options above (like Arab and Latino) are cultural markers, so we can't really say if a baby is a member. Like would Steve Jobs resolve as Arab? I don't think he generally was considered as such.

As another test, would we count Elon today as having (part) Indian children?

@Usaar33 I agree that makes more sense, but I think it is too late to change for this market, and also it is not what the tweet which motivated this market said.