Activity is tracked in terms of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy. This Wikipedia page has a list of previous North Pacific hurricane seasons by ACE.
If the value is 10 or more ACE away from one of the cutoff values, this market resolves in January 2025 to whatever value is listed on Wikipedia. If it is close to a cutoff, the market resolves after the reanalysis of all storms is completed (usually in April) to account for postseason adjustments in ACE.
The last ten years had the following activity:
Below normal: 2020
Near normal: 2017, 2019, 2021
Above normal: 2014, 2015, 2016, 2022, 2023
Record high: 2018
The least active season in recorded history was 1977, while the most active season was 2018.
See also my El Nino / La Nina market for hurricane season: https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/will-it-be-el-nino-la-nina-or-neith. La Niña tends to suppress Pacific tropical cyclone activity, while El Niño tends to enhance it.
1,000
1.00@benshindel Because currently the "North Pacific" ACE is already like 160 or something, so this market doesn't make sense to me
@benshindel I apologize, "North Pacific Hurricane" was not the correct way to describe this market as South Pacific tropical cyclones are not called hurricanes. I was trying to clarify that South Pacific activity did not count. This market tracks Eastern Pacific ACE only (Western Pacific storms are called typhoons and not hurricanes). Sorry for any misunderstanding