What will happen in 2024 relating to the October 1 Iranian missile attack on Israel? [ADD ANSWERS]
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Plus
88
Ṁ23k
Nov 1
97%
Israeli response will physically hurt more people than the Iranian attack
57%
Israel strikes Iran’s energy infrastructure in October
35%
Israel strikes back against Iran in November
34%
Israel launches missiles at Tehran
30%
Oil futures (https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/future/cl.1) reach $80/bbl
22%
An Iranian ship or oil platform sustains damage from military action
17%
A military or civilian plane in Iran or Israel crashes
13%
At least 500 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
11%
US forces strike Iranian forces within Iranian borders
8%
Mass protests in Iran
7%
Israel formally declares war on Iran
3%
F35 is confirmed destroyed or damaged during strike on Iran
2%
At least 5000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
1.7%
Israel assassinates Ayatollah Khamenei
1.6%
At least 15000 casualties in Iran as a result of Israeli attacks
Resolved
YES
Iran does not make a confirmed assassination attempt on Trump before the election
Resolved
YES
UN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7
Resolved
YES
Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) in October

Follow-up to https://manifold.markets/SaviorofPlant/what-will-happen-during-or-as-a-res?play=true

I reserve the right to N/A any answer not sufficiently related to the attack.

It has occurred to me that some of these resolutions might be controversial, so I have liquidated all my positions and will not trade on this market going forward.

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Can I resolve my own question, or is it up to the market creator?

@VonGadke I don't have the expertise to evaluate whether this is credible. I found some random person disputing this: https://x.com/Eran_Efrat/status/1850949508349465011

Will probably lean NO unless I can get more definitive evidence that doesn't require me to pick which person on Twitter I believe

Israel strikes back against Iran (not its proxies) before October 7

@SaviorofPlant Can be resolved as NO

@BaryLevy sorry for the delay

Israel launches missiles at Tehran

@SaviorofPlant Does it include missiles fired from jets?

@RoeyKelner Presumably yes? The Israeli retaliation back in spring used air-launched ballistic missiles apparently (not cruise). This time seems to have been heavy bombs, drones, and missiles. Although have only seen the first two confirmed.

Radar station hit at Nakhjir quite possibly missile strike

@Pjfkh Update, have now seen some analysts say that air launched ballistic missiles again (launched from planes, then climb out of / into upper atmosphere, then re entry, range 2000km) were used in these strikes

There was a strike from Iraq into Israel yesterday, will Israel do anything against that soon?

Mass protests in Iran
bought Ṁ50 Mass protests in Iran NO

@SaviorofPlant Is a rally a protest? If it’s protesting Israel is it a protest?

UN Security Council emergency meeting called before October 7
bought Ṁ500 UN Security Council ... YES

@SaviorofPlant This should resolve YES.

The 15-member council met after Israel killed the leader of Lebanon's Hezbollah and began a ground assault against the Iran-backed militant group and Iran attacked Israel in a strike that raised fears of a wider war in the Middle East.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-chief-warns-tit-for-tat-mideast-violence-must-stop-2024-10-02/