Will the US government crush OpenAI while Elon Musk is a government employee?

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Ṁ2212

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This market resolves YES if, in my interpretation, the United States federal government has "crushed" OpenAI. It resolves NO once Elon Musk has not been a government employee (in a position such as DOGE) for a month.

I will not trade on this market as there is clearly room for interpretation in the resolution criteria.

Update 2025-02-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Government Employee Definition Clarification
- Elon Musk’s role as a White House Advisor will count as being a government employee.
- Even if he is not a member of DOGE, his advisory role qualifies for the market’s resolution criteria.

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22d

All the news reports I've seen have indicated that Musk is not an "employee" but only in some kind of advisory volunteer role. I assume that's still meant to qualify for YES here?

22d

@jcb

Seems he is considered a white house advisor and not actually part of DOGE, which is not what I thought, but still an employee

22d

wanted something more short term so

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Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.

Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.

Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

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