Resolves to yes if at some point before July 1, 2027 (inclusive) the market value of the respective company stock exceeds 5 * x, where x the market closing value on Nov 8, 2024. Note that if the stock quintuples by, say, 2026 and then crashes, it still resolves to YES.

If any of the following happens before July 1 and the respective companies has not (yet) quintupled its value, then the respective company resolves N/A:

* The company goes private (like, e.g., Twitter has).

* The company merges with another company (like, e.g., Velodyne Lidar has).

* The company is broken up.

Note that if a company quintuples by, say, 2026 and then goes private, the company still resolves to YES.

You can suggest further companies in the comments and I might add them. I'm mostly interested in Manifold's views on the near-term future of AI, so I'm mostly interested in AI-related companies, broadly construed. Maybe including some "controls" make sense -- I've already added a few AI-unrelated companies. Also, added companies should be interesting from the perspective of understanding the development of AI. (For example, adding the umpteenth Taiwanese supplier of TSMC would not be interesting.)

Given that the resolution criteria are very precise, I may trade on the market.