At the start of 2026, I'll create another market that lasts 1 week. After that week I will go to random.org and draw a whole random number from 1 to 100,000, inclusively. If it's a 100,000, then I resolve that future question YES. Any other number and I will resolve NO.
Then after that, this market will resolve to YES if the 1-in-100,000 market was correctly priced at 0.001%. Any significant digits after the "1" will be ignored, for simplicity. But if that market doesn't converge on 0.001% within its 1-week duration, then this market will resolve NO.
The correct 0.001% pricing must be displayed in the Manifold UI as the market price. User-made derivatives or tricks (such as amplified markets) wouldn't count.
1,000
1.00@jack market networks would be super cool. what if you could bet on whether relationships between markets will hold?
@NeonNuke Right, that's another thing that would need to be changed for this to resolve YES, and correspondingly, for the 2026 market to correctly show 0.001%.
@Jotto999 I can't think of a good way to do this in the current system, even if Jeff Bezos pledged his entire net worth on subsidies or protective limit orders, and especially without derivative contracts.
There'd be too much money in shorting this contract and screwing with the probability. And it's just so cheap to screw with the probability close to 0% or 100%.
@Mira In theory, I guess sufficiently-big limit orders could do it. But you're right that the current system would require far too much mana.