Will Jim Walton (businessman, Walmart heir) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Will Jim Walton (businessman, Walmart heir) be charged with a serious crime before 2030?
Mini
7
Ṁ311
2030
10%
chance

Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing James ("Jim") Carr Walton (businessman, Walmart heir) has been indicted or criminally charged by police with a serious crime.

Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.

Question is global -- charges in any country count.

Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if they are not found not guilty.

Examples that count: wire fraud, perjury, assault, arson, theft.
Examples that don't count: littering, possession of small amounts of marijuana.

Get
Ṁ1,000
and
S1.00


Sort by:
1y

Statistically less than 1 billionaire is convicted per decade, so if any of these people are convicted then it has to be a catastrophic collapse of capitalism, the individual charges are irrelevant.

87% of fortune 500 companies commit obvious fraud according to surveys and this is higher than the rate for all companies. When a few companies collapse this creates a domino where more become insovlent and commit fraud. It will all fail at once.

predicts NO 1y

@JsjwJssu 1) This series isn't about full convictions. Indicted or charged.

2) 1 per decade seems incorrect. What of Gautam Adani and SBF recently?

1y

@ScroogeMcDuck those weren't real billionaires and they were specifically fall guys to hide the other guys getting arrested.

Convictions happen in droves during financial crises and are much more common in China which you ignore. Predicting individual results is irrelevant because nothing will happen until the entire system collapses at once.

Predicting a crypto scammer collapsing is utterly different from Sam Walton who will go to jail when the entire system collapses. With whatever remnants of government having some kind of criminal system or money judgment that condemns all of them

predicts NO

@JsjwJssu Gautam Adani is still a billionaire. I think these details matter.

You're right that fortune 500 CEOs are highly unlikely to be so fraudulent as SBF. But a major point of this series is helping to uncover fraudulent net worths, which happens. Far, far more often than a total collapse.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Win cash prizes for your predictions on our sweepstakes markets! Always free to play. No purchase necessary.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
How do I win cash prizes?
Manifold offers two market types: play money and sweepstakes.
All questions include a play money market which uses mana Ṁ and can't be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash S to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.
Redeem your sweepcash won from markets at
S1.00
→ $1.00
, minus a 5% fee.
Learn more.