Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
Will Russia launch a military attack against Poland by the end of 2039?
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Plus
20
Ṁ986
2040
16%
chance

Inspired by @XYZ_RGB's question, thank you making the example.

Resolves YES if Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029. "Kinetic military action" excludes electronic and cybernetic war resources. It includes shooting projectiles, and deploying troops or military vehicles inside Poland.

We will ignore accidents with stray missiles such as this one.

Resolves NO in 2040-Jan if no kinetic military attack happens.

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1mo

Should be arbitraged IIUC!

4mo

"Resolves YES if Russia exerts kinetic military action in the territory of Poland by December 31st, 2029." is it a typo?
Also what about proven acts of sabotage? This is happening already.

1y

What about little green men? I.e. how official do the troops need to be?

@Thomas42 Good question. In general: if we're confident they're part of the Russian Federation military, and they're armed, and we're confident they have something to do with invasive **operations, then I'm guessing we count them.

bought Ṁ10 NO from 18% to 17% 1y
1y

@ScroogeMcDuck **I should say invasive intentions or goals, rather than "invasive maneuvers" which seems more specific. I just mean if they are clearly part of some effort to occupy, then they count.

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