Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Vitalik Buterin (co-founder and inventor of Ethereum) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030. Part of a large question series.
Question is global -- charges in any country count.
Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if they are not found not guilty.
Examples that count: wire fraud, perjury, assault, arson, theft.
Examples that don't count: littering, possession of small amounts of marijuana.
1,000
1.00@Jotto999 is there any way we can try and demarcate that this market currently prices in Russia? Feels unfair that currently Vitalik ends up with 9% cos of basically an autocracy?
@NathanpmYoung I'm not sure if there's a worthwhile way to do that in the title. I do think it's good to make that explicit in the comments. Is it known whether Vitalik plans to ever go back to Russia? After his criticism of the Kremlin, it would seem prohibitively dangerous.
@NathanpmYoung Just do the base rates. Manifold systematically underprices the probability that cryptocurrency-related people are engaging in criminal behavior. The whole business model depends on criminal activity or fraud.
Even people who do not run exchanges are probably committing many crimes each day, especially if the settlement criteria include every country in the world.
For example, what is the probability that a cryptocurrency magnate can do their income taxes without committing several felonies? Even if the cryptocurrency magnate is squeaky clean in all other areas of their life, they still have to do their taxes.
Now what is the probability that a high-profile cryptocurrency magnate with an established residence will be charged with a felony in the next 7 years given that the SEC and SDNY are throwing the book at SBF?
Is the product of those two probabilities less than 20%? If you think so, I'll gladly take the other side of that bet.
The biggest mistake I've made on this site was not being very long YES shares in the "SBF convicted of felony" market.
2030 is a long time away!
@mr22222222 Usually it is a mistake to write a short article about your edge in a market. But Warren Buffett goes in front of a crowd of thousands each year to say "buy things that are worth more than a dollar for much less than a dollar" and he still makes money because he knows people will be completely unable to follow this advice.
@mr22222222 Sorry for the imprecision -- the probability I'm estimating is the chance that a cryptocurrency person commits felonies times the probability that they will be charged with felonies given that they commit felonies.
@NathanpmYoung I'm def a little surprised at how low this is relative to some of the other markets, given
a) the state of crypto generally, and
b) Buterin is a wealthy Russian who has vocally expressed support for Ukraine and possibly donated to Ukrainian resistance; maybe he visits Russia in a decade and they charge him with treason when he lands?
It's a weird artifact of Manifold that I don't actually think the odds of that happening are greater than 3%, but I do think the odds of [Russia treason charge or crypto shenanigans charge] are greater than the odds of, eg, Alexander Berger being charged with a felony. Berger's market is currently at 6% while this is at 3%. I don't actually think Buterin is going to get charged with a felony, but I am confused as to the amount of trust this market expresses relative to many of the others.
@GavrielK In fact, Vitalik's address did donate to a Ukrainian aid address. If anything, it's surprising on the surface that he hasn't been charged already with some kind of treason.
