Will Biden or Trump outperform their polling?
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40
Ṁ1368resolved Aug 3
ResolvedN/A
1D
1W
1M
ALL
45%
Biden
55%
Trump
Specifically national average (including third parties) vs national popular vote. This will resolve according to margin between the two, so if the polling margin is Biden + 3 and he wins by 2, it resolves to Trump. RCP or 538 average will be used.
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@ShakedKoplewitz Seems silly for Biden to be at 50-50 in the main market without this being very pro Biden.
@riverwalk3 I think the expectation is that the polling would shift towards Biden, not that Biden will overperform polling on election day
@StopPunting The markets on whether Trump loses his popular vote lead for more than 4 weeks at a time seems to disagree.
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