This market is about the average FTX international customer
EDIT: If recovery percentages vary among customers, a weighted average will be used. For example, if 2% of customers hold 90% of the claim value and recover 130%, while 98% of customers hold 10% of the claim value and recover 120%, the market will resolve to (130% * 0.9) + (120% * 0.1) = 129%.
1,000
1.00From FTX official mail:
Dotcom customers are anticipated to receive between 119-143 c/$
Claims are ~9-10B, depending on what you count, they've recovered ~7.8. There's no way people are getting back >100%, which is what it was prior to my trade.
Claims are currently trading at 93-97%: https://claims-market.com/
This also indicates that there should be a chance of more than 100%
@Simon74fe I glanced through the restructuring company's site. They very much so do not portray the image that people are getting back >100%.
Do you expect there to be reporting stating a particular amount on the dollar that these customers had returned?
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
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and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Are our predictions accurate?
How do I win cash prizes?
and can't be cashed out. to participate and winners can withdraw sweepcash as a cash prize. You can filter for sweepstakes markets on the browse page.1.00