Russians are voting for their President this week.
Putin is expected to win an unprecedented fifth term as President in an election that cannot be described as free and fair.
/SimonGrayson/russian-presidential-election-2024-4dfa5ebc52ed
He has already changed the constitution so that he can continue to serve as President as he would be over decade past Russia’s constitutional term limits otherwise.
When will he finally leave office?
Market notes:
If Putin dies, resigns or is replaced as President, this market resolves to the year when that happens
You can bet on “other” and I will split out future years if it looks like he’s hanging on. You will receive shares in these future years as they’re split out if you had shares in “other”
If the name of the office is changed (eg. there is no longer a President but he stays in power as the Tsar of Russia), that won’t count as leaving office
If the role of President still exists and Putin takes a different role (eg. Prime Minister), that counts as leaving office even if he still holds power in this other role like he did from 2008 to 2012
If Russia is broken up, Putin will be considered to still be in office if he remains President of the largest part of what was Russia (50%+ of its population) or the President of whatever is deemed to be its successor state by the UN and other international bodies
1,000
1.00@BTE Used to be 4 before 2012 tho. Also, I don't think anyone expects elections to be the leading cause.
@b575 You’re right - I think it’s telling that there isn’t even a blip on the graph at 2030 where his new term is supposed to come to an end…
@HarryHayfield That seems pretty likely… In which case this doubles up as a market on when that will be!