If humanity is still around on 1st January 2033, this market resolves to NO
If not, it resolves to YES
I have created this market for two reasons:
I wanted somewhere to store the list of year based markets below so that I could see what the outliers look like
I'm trying to understand the dynamics of how these markets work, especailly with the way that we can get loans back based on long term bets. The obvious rule in these market should be that no one should ever bet on YES since they won't be around to collect their winnings if humanity is wiped out. But are people betting on the basis that they won't be using Manifold in the 2030s meaning that they can artificially play around with the odds? Feel free to chat about this in the market's comments!
The current markets:
/firstuserhere/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-8a4174c96fff
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-ec3ecb5adbc3
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-8d4b1732d830
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-7e0a99eb4e97
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-8f67976258d3
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-f80d307a152f
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-689ba58152d5
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-c4dd0657d4fa
/MartinRandall/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-d8733b2114a8
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-b4153e3cfd6b
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-c7e255f4843c
/SimonGrayson/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-f68233d0c95f <--- You are here
/TeddyWeverka/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-fb2463776b50
/Tripping/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6d1e8126d974
/PC/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-c1d8754a17c8
/JamesBills/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-6e8e547afa66
/PC/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th-cc08630b0f50
/JamesDillard/will-ai-wipe-out-humanity-before-th
1,000
1.00