Following his previous nine fines for contempt of court, Trump has this week been fined for a tenth time:
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/07/trump-trial-judge-day-13
Judge Merchan has said that this is too many times and that he really will have to consider jailing Trump if he violates the gag order again. But he also said that last time.
Will Trump be found to have further violated the gag order and be punished again (with a fine, jail or anything else) by the end of May?
1,000
1.00Related market - @mint asks whether Trump will face prison or house arrest for violating a gag order this year:
/mint/will-trump-be-sent-to-prison-for-vi
It's telling that this market is at 85% and the other market is at 30% despite Merchan's threats that further violations could mean prison. Apparently, Manifold thinks that Merchan is lying or bluffing.