Will there be a one-person unicorn by 2030?

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Ṁ5640

2031

23%

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The outcome is true if by the end of 2030 a public company achieves the market cap of 1 billion dollars while having only one funder and employee. Or a one-person private company raises enough money that places it at a valuation above 1B, reported in a reputable news source.

https://fortune.com/2024/02/04/sam-altman-one-person-unicorn-silicon-valley-founder-myth/

For the purpose of this market and to ensure that the company is not just a scam,with "enough money" we mean over 10$ million.

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Near-duplicate of https://manifold.markets/Putcallparity/will-there-be-a-unicorn-founded-and

bought Ṁ10 YES

YES voters you’re covered I’ll start a single person AI company with 1B valuation. Just give me a hand to find an investor willing to invest in my company that has the sole purpose of earning me back 10M I invested in this market.

bought Ṁ10 NO

Market cap is a measure used for publicly traded companies normally. Assuming you mean pre- or post-money valuation for a fundraising round for private companies? Those are very easy to game, might make sense to specify some more criteria?

@Thomas42 correct. Any suggestion how to make it more specific?

@Thomas42 regarding gaming post-money valuations, such a company has already existed! https://youtu.be/iHfJRON3b-w?si=ul5UiLAMDlKGO-u1

@SimoneRomeo I would say publicly announced raising at least X million at a valuation above 1B, reported in a reputable news source, or something like that.

@Thomas42 😂😅😅oh my god! That video!

@Thomas42 I update the description. Check if it makes sense

@SimoneRomeo imo "enough money" is still ambiguous, since you can raise $1 at a $1B valuation. I would decide on some amount, e.g. $1M or $10M.

@Thomas42 got it. Should be alright now. I was not familiar with how valuations work. It was cool to understand more about it

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