Will GPT-5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
Plus
12
Ṁ701Jan 1
85%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
If it's clear GPT-5 will never be released for whatever reason, resolves N/A.
Otherwise starting from the first time it appears at all on the leaderboard, resolves YES if it hits the top spot, and NO if it does not.
Does not apply to any future versions that are also called "GPT 5-preview", just the first iteration to appear on the LLMSys leaderboard. If multiple appear at once (like Opus/Sonnet/Haiku), any of them count.
Get
1,000and
1.00
1,0001.00Related questions
Related questions
Will GPT-4.5 top the LLMSys Chatbot Arena leaderboard within a month of its release?
78% chance
Will any LLM outrank GPT-4 by 150 Elo in LMSYS chatbot arena before 2025?
20% chance
Will OpenAI launch a significantly better model for ChatGPT paying users in 2024? (>= 100 points diff on ChatBot Arena)
21% chance
Who will ever rank #1 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will there be a model with a 69%+ Chatbot Arena win rate against gpt-o1 before June 1st, 2025?
47% chance
Who will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Leaderboard in 2025?
Will GPT-4-Turbo be ranked in the top 20 on the Chatbot Arena Leaderboard at the end of 2025?
18% chance
Will an Open Source LLM Surpass any GPT-4 model in Elo Rating on Chatbot Arena on december 31, 2024?
96% chance
What will be GPT-5's score on LMSYS Chatbot Arena?
Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard
77% chance