Ok, I'm going to be responsible for clarifying and resolving this market going forward!

@mods can someone n/a this please? i don’t want to run this market anymore

i'm not sure if one can within the rules / should be able to n/a a market because you want to, for reasons unrelated to the subject of the market. But 'eradicates' is very ambiguous so I guess we could n/a ƒor that reason

@Soli bump, would it be fine if I adopted this market or do you strongly prefer that it n/a? (I'd plausibly N/A it anyway because the criteria are ambiguous, not sure yet)

@jacksonpolack it feels wrong to prevent you from taking over a market i created just because i don’t want to run it anymore so yes you or someone else can take over the market. that said, i do prefer we n/a the whole market.

@Soli Ok, I'll take it over, I just think it's bad precedent to allow n/aing markets for reasons other than ambiguity or inability to correctly resolve it

@jacksonpolack cool, make sure no one annoys me with questions about what i meant when i used certain words because i genuinely have no idea

Since it is a conditional format, how do define eradicates? What is the criteria?

I don’t think Israel can do that…. Despite what Bibi says….

I personally think that northern Gaza people will return to their homes, or at least be allowed to do so and build new homes… and Hamas will still rule the strip.

The homes will be destroyed, this is the wrong way to phrase the question. You should ask about the population of Gaza City in 2050 or something like that.

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@Soli The Palestinians are already in (South) Gaza. Will allow any Palestinians north of Wadi Gaza? OK, maybe 2050 is far. By when, then? Give it some more shots. And maybe spell "Palestinians" correctly. ;)

But, definitely the right idea, a good market to make. Just needs a bit of work. ;)

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@Soli Hmm North Gaza had like 1.25M people before the war and just got destroyed. Returning to 80% of its prewar population in barely 2 years is difficult, even if Israel does whatever it can to rebuild the area. Maybe put a lower number. And say that you mean everything north of Wadi Gaza.

@Soli Err I think just say "will 600,000 Palestinians live north of Wadi Gaza by the end of 2025", that's how I would operationalize this. The "allow back" is a bit strange, how about people who somehow stayed there the whole time? Would you discount them? If a pregnant woman is allowed back and has a baby, etcetera.

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@Soli OK. I still think it might be hard to get to half of the prewar population in barely 2 years. I would do less population and more time if I were you, or better yet not have a simple binary market. Maybe I can make some markets myself on the Palestinian population of Gaza north of Wadi Gaza at various points in time.

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@Soli Hmm I think this market is pretty good, though maybe it would be good to have some more markets with different dates and population counts at some point. I'll see where this market goes and then maybe in a few months try to make another market whose probability should be around 50%.

@nathanwei How would you like the possibly that Israel will leave survivors to be considered?