I will start the final poll in ~2 weeks from now. I am actually curious to learn what will happen.

I will start another one now just for fun and to get a sense of where people are right now.

Related

I will leave this here because seems people are overly confident in their assesment at this point

same but end of year https://manifold.markets/Soli/what-will-manifold-users-think-of-t-cade71bcfe5b?r=U29saQ

Hi, nice idea for a market but I suggest you change the criteria.

Read this for more info, but the problem is markets that resolve to themselves just don't work:

https://manifold.markets/post/selfresolving-markets-why-they-dont

@Eliza Based on that document, a great suggestion would be to have people bet on what the results of a poll with the same 3 options, held at a future date, would be. You can choose a reasonable date for a poll and wait until that date to run it.

@Eliza done great idea thank you