This resolves Yes if Sam announces the founding of a new company in which he is a co-founder or equivalent founding member.
If he joins an existing company in a founding-level role, such as through a company restructuring or a new initiative, this will not count unless it is branded and established as a new company entity.
1,000
1.00Is this potentially a new company?
https://www.macrumors.com/2024/04/05/jony-ive-sam-altman-ai-device/
@BTE are you sure he is raising money under his own name and not OpenAI? I have a seperate question for the AI chips venture rumors but for OpenAI not Sam.
I guess both would resolve Yes if he is considered a founder and OpenAI puts money into it.
@Soli He started an independent VC fund last year. He is incentivized NOT to do anything under Open AI.
@BTE came here to say this - remains to be seen, but the headlines in recent days effectively say he's fundraising "for a new AI chip venture."
Based on everything I was able to gather there might have been an intention to create a separate entity under Microsoft which would be led by Sam but it seems did not go through. It is even questionable if such an entity would have been considered a separate company so I am strongly leaning towards it doesn’t count towards resolving this market. I am open for counter arguments but I don’t want this market to trade based on the ambiguity of the situation.
@BTE I am a bit hesitant to share my thoughts when the market is still open but I hope everyone who participated in this market read the description.
@BTE I see you increased your YES position, do you still believe that the microsoft announcement should count (-> this resolves yes) or are you buying because you believe Sam will start a company before 2025?
@Soli I bought when i read that he has in the last six months started a new fund and he was in Saudi Arabia recently raising money for a new venture with Johnny Ive to build a device which I do not think will be part of OpenAI.
@Soli If this market was created before the Microsoft announcement then it should probably resolve YES because he was the CEO of a new company owned by Microsoft. But it would be better to wait to see if he starts an independent company. I think someone like Sam can't help themselves, all they think about is starting and running companies.
@BTE That’s a bit weird to say that the AI division is a separated company from Microsoft. Satya literally said it’s Microsoft’s new AI Group without a company name.