As almost all of you have likely heard, FTX, FTX US, and Alameda will file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in the U.S.

The FTX Future Fund gave away grants to many recipients.

The question is, by 2028, will at least 50% of U.S. based distinct entities that received those grants via the FTX Foundation, Inc. (received within the past 90 days of the date of bankruptcy filing) have their money attempted to be "clawed back" - in the sense that they are told (e.g., by a court order or letter from the FTX entities or letter from creditors) that they have to give back the money (e.g., to be redistributed among bankruptcy creditors)?

This is NOT an estimate of whether such projects would be forced to give the money back if they were to defend themselves in court, only whether they will receive such a demand (e.g., via a letter from the FTX entities).

Some relevant links:

https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/o8B9kCkwteSqZg9zc/thoughts-on-legal-concerns-surrounding-the-ftx-situation

"Essentially, if you received money from an FTX entity in the debtor group anytime on or after approximately August 11, 2022, the bankruptcy process will probably ask you, at some point, to pay all or part of that money back"

And:

'[L]egal experts argue that even if these funds were proven to be linked to wrongdoing, there probably would be no legal basis for clawbacks. James Cox, professor of corporate and securities law at Duke University, said this was due to the “bona fide” principle, which protects individuals who accept money with no knowledge it derives from illicit activity.' https://www.ft.com/content/428c7800-c72d-4c59-9940-4376fea6e263 (paywalled) (this is about political donations though, so may not be relevant).

And here is more info about this entity "FTX Foundation, Inc" and what connection it may or may not have to the other FTX entities:

While payments for different grants from the Future Fund came from different entities, there was one entity, in particular, that seems to have made quite a number of  grants:

FTX Foundation, Inc.

I see no mention of this entity in the Alameda bankruptcy documents: (https://s.wsj.net/public/resources/documents/alameda-filing-11112022.pdf)

What's more, this diagram that has been floating around of their corporate structure (https://i.imgur.com/sUb2efI.png) shows FTX Foundation Inc. (at the bottom of the chart) as being unconnected to the other entities.

The FTX Foundation Inc. seems to have Delaware file number  6586501, which, when I search for it in the Delaware corporate database (https://icis.corp.delaware.gov/eCorp/EntitySearch/NameSearch.aspx) with a different name -  FTX PHILANTHROPY, INC. - but this entity is also not in the bankruptcy filing from what I can tell, and I think not on the corporate structure chart mentioned above either.

So, what is  FTX Foundation Inc.? Here (https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/2mx6xrDrwiEKzfgks/announcing-the-future-fund-1?commentId=qtJ7KviYxWiZPubtY), one of the people running the Future Fund says:

"We have a number of entities we can use to provide funding, and which we use depends on the exact circumstances. It could be our non-profit entity FTX Foundation Inc, or it could be a DAF [Donor Advised Fund] of one of our board members, or it could be something else if it's a for-profit investment. "

This article (https://puck.news/the-s-b-f-pandemic/) also referred to this org as a 501(c)(3):

"That financial question also hovers over the future of the FTX Future Fund, the flagship foundation created by S.B.F. and other top executives at the company that promised to give away hundreds of millions of dollars annually and has already distributed $160 million this past year. But it’s not clear that all of the assets there are segregated for charity—this particular philanthropy is actually a collection of vehicles: a 501(c)3 foundation called FTX Foundation Inc. and several donor-advised funds of its board members, along with other, undisclosed vehicles if the Future Fund wants to back a for-profit company."